Global Phosphoric Acid Prices decline amid Reduced Demand and weak Supplier Response

In the global market, the price of Phosphoric Acid saw a notable decline in May H1. This decrease in the Phosphoric Acid price is primarily attributed to the fall in Ex-quotation prices from major suppliers amid a continuous downward trend in destocking. Demand of Phosphoric Acid from the downstream market was relatively low, influenced by reduced sales of key fertilizers such as DAP (diammonium phosphate), MAP (monoammonium phosphate), and NPK (nitrogen, phosphorus, and potassium). Additionally, lower bids for fresh accumulation from suppliers, in response to the observed downstream market demand, led major manufacturers to operate their plants at lower efficiency.

In the German market, Phosphoric Acid prices saw a challenging price trend in H1 May. The feedstock market showed stability mainly Phosphate rock prices, while Sulphuric Acid prices surged by 12.77% in April. Despite sequential quarterly improvement, ICL Fertilizers Deutschland GmbH reported a decrease in sales in the phosphate sector for Q1 2024, totalling USD 559 million, down from USD 675 million previously. Although Phosphate prices remained stable, future quarters are expected to be influenced by supply dynamics. Sales of white Phosphoric Acid declined year-over-year due to lower global prices and varied regional volumes. Industrial phosphates experienced decreased sales attributed to declines in both prices and volumes, although productivity remained stable with consistent demand from the cleaning supply and water treatment sectors. Sales of food phosphates also decreased due to lower prices and volumes, driven by softer demand in South America and competitive challenges in North America. However, commodity phosphates showed sequential improvement in sales, driven by higher fertilizer sales, volumes, and prices.

In the USA market, according to recent data from Mosaic, one of the largest fertilizer manufacturers in the country, earnings for the phosphate segment were USD 40 million in the first quarter, significantly lower than the USD 266 million reported in the same period the previous year. This decline in earnings is attributed to various factors, including lower prices, reduced sales volumes, a higher proportion of third-party produced fertilizers, and increased planned turnaround costs, although partially offset by lower raw material expenses. Higher conversion costs, a greater proportion of low-margin third-party produced finished products, and increased turnaround costs have also impacted profitability. Production of finished phosphates totalled 1.6 million tonnes, marking a 14% decrease year-over-year, with sales volumes also declining. Production volumes during the quarter were affected by increased planned maintenance turnaround activities. These factors have influenced the Phosphoric Acid demand in the US market.

As per the ChemAnalyst, the price of the Phosphoric Acid is expected to showcase bearish trend in the upcoming month. This anticipation in the Phosphoric Acid price decline is primarily liked to the lower trend in the price action observed from the past few months of destocking to be continue in the upcoming sessions. Major Phosphoric Acid companies in the world like OCP Morocco, Mosaic, ICL Fertilizers, Coromandel, Paradeep Phosphate are operating with lower volumes. It is expected for the volumes to remain muted in the upcoming sessions. The feedstock Phosphate rock price is also trading at lower scale which will influence towards lower production cost of the Phosphoric Acid. These factors will collectively influence the price of the Phosphoric Acid in the upcoming sessions.