LAB Market Gains Stability in Winters, Likely to Get Disturbed Amidst Shifting Trade Dynamics

During the final week of January 2023, the global Linear Alkyl Benzene (LAB) market witnessed distinctive trends, with varying dynamics affecting major players such as China, the United States, and India.

In China, the LAB market experienced a modest 0.6% increase in prices, primarily driven by a simultaneous 1% rise in feedstock Benzene prices. This surge in raw material costs resulted in an overall escalation of production expenses for LAB in the country. Additionally, container rates showed signs of stabilization as the impact of the Red Sea crisis diminished and new vessels were deployed, addressing the challenges in maintaining weekly services. Carriers are now focused on the post-Chinese New Year period, anticipating a surge in orders following a substantial 126% rise in the Shanghai Containerized Freight Index (SCFI) since the end of November 2023. Despite an expected correction, analysts differ on the post-Chinese New Year scenario, with some anticipating the retention of recent gains due to persistent shortages in vessel capacity and container equipment.

In India, a different narrative unfolded, with a notable 1% decrease in LAB prices observed throughout the week. This marks the fourth consecutive week of declining prices, and it was attributed to subdued demand of LAB from the downstream surfactant industry. The off-season winter demand contributed significantly to the reduction in surfactant sales, influencing the overall decrease in LAB prices within the Indian market.

Contrastingly, in the United States, the price of LAB remained stable throughout the week. The resilience in LAB prices was attributed to the meticulous balance maintained between demand and supply dynamics. Despite rising feedstock Benzene costs and increasing global freight charges, the demand for LAB in the U.S. remained synchronized with available supplies, preventing substantial fluctuations. Specifically, the price of detergent-grade LAB FOB Louisiana (USA) held steady at approximately USD 2040/MT over the week.

As the ocean freight rates surge, shippers are facing a challenge in finding viable alternatives for transporting goods from China to Europe, given the disruptions caused by attacks on the Red Sea, a vital ocean route. In response to these challenges, a growing number of shippers are turning their attention to rail routes via Russia. Freight forwarders and consolidators, responsible for coordinating the shipment of goods, have witnessed a notable surge in enquiries and bookings for this alternative route. The appeal of rail transport lies in its cost-effectiveness compared to air freight and its faster transit times compared to ocean transportation. The rail journey from China to Europe typically takes between 14 and 25 days, a significantly improved transit time when compared to ocean routes. This newfound interest in rail transportation is a testament to the urgency shippers are experiencing, seeking efficient and reliable means of moving commodity like LAB amid the disruptions in traditional maritime routes. As the complexities of the current maritime challenges persist, the growing interest in rail routes via Russia highlights the industry's resilience and ability to innovate in the face of adversity.

The global LAB market, influenced by various factors such as feedstock costs, freight rates, and regional demand trends, exhibits a complex and interconnected landscape.