June 2024: White Oil Prices Continued to Witness a Stable Situation Across the US

The US White Oil continued to witness a stability during the opening week of June 2024 amidst high demand from the downstream cosmetic and skincare industry.

Prices of feedstock Crude Oil fell by approximately 4.5% during the opening week of June 2024 due to low demand from China and ample inventories reported by EIA. This consequently led to a drag on the production costs for White Oil across the domestic US market. Moreover, the untimely arrival of cargoes of White Oil across Texas were seen, which was primarily due to disruption across key waterways such as the persisting crisis at the Red Sea and congestions across the Strait of Malacca and the port of Singapore prompted freight charges to soar.

Regarding feedstock, the average crude oil refinery inputs in the United States totaled 17.1 million barrels per day for the week concluding on May 31, 2024, marking an increase of 61 thousand barrels per day compared to the preceding week's average. Refineries were recorded to have been operating at 95.4% of their operable capacity last week, gebrating ample inventories iof White Oil. U.S. commercial crude oil inventories (excluding those in the Strategic Petroleum Reserve) increased by 1.2 million barrels from the previous week, EIA data showed.  Moreover, the unexpected depreciation witnessed across the manufacturing activities across China, as indicated by the depreciation in the PMI from 50.4 in April 2024 to 49.5 in May 2024, according to NBS China further waned the demand for Crude Oil from the largest Crude importing market, thereby negatively impacting the production costs of White Oil across the domestic US market.

Overall, a low demand for Crude Oil continued to remain a drag on the production costs of White Oil.  Furthermore, according to EIA, US refinery rates during the last week of May 2024 averaged 95.4%, which was an increment from the previous week's 94.3%, leading to ample circulation of White Oil across the domestic market.

Regarding manufacturing activities, new orders returned to growth in the US manufacturing sector in May, supporting a faster expansion in production midway through the second quarter of the year. Moreover, a renewed rise in purchasing activity, and a build-up of stocks of finished goods, generally indicate positive procurement activities for White Oil.

In terms of demand, consumption for several commodities including White Oil remained moderate as indicated by real DPI (disposable personal income) which decreased by 0.1% in April. Real consumer spending also decreased by 0.1% which reflected a decrease of 0.4% for the spending on goods. This was despite demand conditions observing peak due to the peak summer season. The National Oceanic Atmospheric Administration (NOAA) favours a positive outlook for warmer-than-usual June with large parts of central and western United States expected warmer above average temperatures, thereby retaining demand conditions of White Oil mostly in the positive territory.