IGC Anticipates All-Time High Maize Harvest in Latest Forecast

The International Grains Council (IGC) recently released its latest monthly Grain Market Report, shedding light on the global agricultural landscape, particularly focusing on maize (corn) production forecasts for the 2023-24 marketing year. This Market report indicates a significant upward revision in projections, emphasizing heightened expectations for both industrial and feed utilization.

Published on February 15, 2024, the report unveils a notable surge in anticipated maize production figures. An additional 4 million tonnes have been incorporated into the projections, resulting in an impressive forecast of 1.234 billion tonnes. This substantial augmentation marks a remarkable 6.1% escalation compared to the output recorded in the preceding marketing year of 2022-23. Simultaneously, the IGC has also adjusted its forecasts for maize (corn) consumption, which now stand at a record 1.222 billion tonnes, signifying a noteworthy upswing of 47 million tonnes from the previous year.

In contrast, global wheat output for the 2023-24 period is anticipated to maintain stability at 788 million tonnes, mirroring previous forecasts. This projection reflects a marginal decline of nearly 2% compared to the preceding year. Despite this, the IGC's projections for wheat consumption have remained largely unchanged from the previous month, with an anticipated record high of 803 million tonnes. However, wheat carryover stocks for the current year have undergone a downward revision, plummeting to 265 million tonnes, indicative of the lowest level observed in the past five years.

The resurgence in production, particularly in Argentina, has emerged as a driving force behind the IGC's forecast for global soybean output in 2023-24, which has soared to a record 391 million tonnes. This figure remains largely consistent with the previous month's assessment, indicating stability in projections.

Furthermore, reflecting broader market dynamics, the IGC Grains and Oilseeds Price Index has witnessed a notable decline of 7% since January, marking its lowest level since October 2020. The current price index stands at a significant 26% decrease compared to the corresponding period last year. Specifically, the price index for maize (corn) has experienced a considerable drop of 38% compared to February 2023, while soybeans and wheat have observed reductions of 29% and 26%, respectively, on a year-on-year basis.

An intriguing anomaly within the price index fluctuations pertains to rice, which has defied the downward trajectory by registering a significant increase of 32% compared to the previous year. This suggests relative stability compared to the January report, highlighting a unique trend amidst broader market movements.