HDPE Market Faces Downward Pressure Amid Bleak Demand and Regional Disruptions

The global HDPE market experienced a downward trend last week, particularly across Europe and most of Asia, with a notable divergence within the Asian market. In contrast to other regions, HDPE prices in China and India remained steady, while other Asian countries observed a decline. The primary driver of this easing trend has been the falling prices of feedstock Ethylene, which reduced production costs for HDPE. Further, weak demand from key downstream sectors such as construction, automotive, and packaging industries pressured prices. Ample product availability in regional markets prompted traders to lower prices, particularly in Europe. In Germany, however, the price of HDPE Injection FD Hamburg eased by 1.5%, reflecting localized demand factors. In China, HDPE Injection Molding was quoted at USD 1089/MT EXW Jiangsu, while HDPE prices in other Asian markets decreased by around 1% during the week ending September 20, 2024.

European HDPE prices continued to face downward pressure as weak demand persisted, weighing on the market. The market remained volatile, balancing between sluggish demand and abundant supplies, with participants trading carefully amid ongoing economic uncertainties. Despite expectations for a post-summer demand recovery, no significant uptick has been observed in HDPE prices. Sellers have been forced to lower their September pricing targets due to the subdued market sentiment, while buyers focused on meeting immediate restocking needs. The irregular movements in feedstock Ethylene prices have left buyers hesitant, many opting for a cautious wait-and-see approach. Some buyers had already secured their September requirements during the July-August period, further dampening current HDPE demand. Across the value chain, a systemic decline has been evident, with Europe’s industrial outlook remaining bleak. In the contract market, buyers displayed caution, closely monitoring market fundamentals. As a result, producers were compelled to adjust price increases initially announced earlier in the month, responding to the overall weak demand conditions.

Meanwhile, in the past week, HDPE prices in Asian markets have been pressured by a combination of high supply and weak demand. Bids for October cargoes were lower than usual, reflecting the eroding downstream margins that have continued to weigh on the market. The soft demand for HDPE, coupled with limited support from downstream sectors, left several cargoes readily available in the region. As demand remained sluggish and with the typical winter slowdown approaching, some derivative factories began considering reducing their operating rates for the fourth quarter. Market sentiment in Southeast Asia was particularly lackluster, with poor derivative margins, especially in the polyethylene sector, further dampening the outlook. Overall, the HDPE market in Asia remains under strain as supply outpaces demand amid a challenging economic environment. Additionally, Typhoon Bebinca made landfall, bringing torrential rains that flooded roads and caused widespread disruptions in the region. During China's three-day Mid-Autumn Festival, travel was significantly disrupted as flights, ferries, and train services were suspended in multiple provinces. This disruption has further strained the supply chain, delayed the transportation of goods, and added logistical challenges to an already sluggish HDPE market.

In plant news, Singapore's ExxonMobil is scheduled to restart its 1.3 million tons/yr,  LLDPE/HDPE swing plant at the end of October, following a maintenance shutdown that began in mid-September.