Global Zinc Production Faces Threat from Schedule Closures and Capacity Shortage

In 2022, global Zinc production experienced a decline of 1.2% to sit at 12.8 million tonnes (mt) following a rebound from Covid-19 in 2021. While there were decreases in Canada (-12.4%), Russia (-4.9%), and China (-0.3%), increases in production from the US, Mexico, and India helped offset these declines, resulting in total production The quantity is set to increase from 2.2mt in 2021 to 2.3mt in 2022.

Additionally, the combined output from Peru and Australia saw a slight decrease from 2.8mt in 2021 to 2.7mt in 2022. Unfortunately, fresh Covid-19 restrictions, especially in China, along with various supply issues and a lacklustre economic outlook caused significant volatility in the Zinc market for most of the year.

Peru, known as the world's second-largest Zinc producer after China, faced a setback in 2022 in terms of Zinc production, which was down by 4.8% from last year's output, amounting to 1.5mt. This decline was caused by various conflicts between the mining companies and local communities, which resulted in several key operations, including the Yauricocha, Cuajone, and Atacocha mines, being paralyzed.

One of the other setbacks was a mudslide incident that occurred at the Yauricocha mine that resulted in a full production loss of 20 days during the third quarter. Adding to the complications were the grade reduction at Cerro Lindo due to planned mining sequencing and the planned mining cessation at the Iscaycruz mine as it moves towards closure in 2024.

On the other hand, some countries like Mexico, the US, and India exhibited exemplary performance during the same period due to their exceptional grades and successful recoveries from various mines. Mexico's San Rafael, Fresnillo, Juanicipio, and Sabinas, the US' Red Dog mine and India's Sindesar Khurd, Rajpura Dariba, Zawar, and Kayad were some of the contributing factors for their success. In addition, the commissioning of Mexico's Camino Rojo project in April 2022 also played a crucial role in enhancing their production output.

According to projections, there will be a 2.0% increase in global Zinc production in 2023, which will primarily be contributed by countries such as India, China, Mexico, and Brazil. The Buenavista Zinc project in Mexico and the Aripuana Zinc project in Brazil, are set to begin production in 2023, with a combined annual production capacity of 161.6 kilotonnes (kt), thus further supporting the growth of Zinc production.

The Buenavista Zinc project is a $413m initiative that has completed its engineering study and is currently under construction; it is expected to double Grupo Mexico's Zinc production capacity upon completion.

Forecasting for the next few years, the global production of Zinc is anticipated to remain constant, with a compounded annual growth rate (CAGR) of 0.5% through the years 2023 to 2026. The production is estimated to reach 13.1mt by 2026, however, there will be limited growth in Zinc production primarily because of a decrease in production from major producers such as China, Kazakhstan, Peru, and Bolivia.