Despite Weak Demand, European Steel Rebar Prices Surge in Early Q2 2023

In the European market, the Steel Rebar prices showcased an up-swinging price trend in the first week of April as mills attempted to push for an increase. According to market participants, Steel Rebar costs are rising compared to March. However, activity is still unclear and is expected to slow this week due to the Easter and April 25 holidays. Buyers are skeptical of the large price hike planned by some German Steel Rebar mills for orders in April, which is coherent given the extent of the price upsurge. Some buyers are even skeptical that any increase in Steel Rebar prices can be accomplished at all. Large buyers and cut-and-bend businesses bid as low as possible, but mills said this was below their costs. Buyers were cautious about the price trend in April, so trading was restricted. Construction demand remained weak, but sources predicted a slight increase in activity in April due to the commencement of some infrastructure projects.

According to our sources, Steel Rebar is generally steady in the secondary market. Traders hold Steel Rebar costs steady, but sales are slow. During the current week, Italian and German producers, allegedly considering a price increase, remained missing from the spot market. Furthermore, given the high prices of domestic Steel Rebar, some buyers are contemplating acquiring cheaper imported materials. Traders say that the benders are not placing significant orders, and demand is declining. Moreover, the mills cannot reduce their prices because doing so would result in losses for them. Market participants anticipate the next buying spree in May, at which time buyers will have a clearer picture.

Scrap prices have been increasing since the beginning of the year, with mills aiming for a maximum increase in Steel Rebar prices of USD 87 per metric tonne. However, the other cost-pusher, electricity, has seen rates fall to pre-Covid levels. The remaining issue is a dearth of demand, which has resulted from the cancellation of numerous residential construction projects since last year.

As a result of falling downstream construction inquiries and a cautious trader's demand outlook, ChemAnalyst expects that European Steel Rebar prices will stay flat in the coming week. Market participants claim that the spot market is currently pessimistic, with investments in the downstream construction sector expected to fall by the range of 5-6% by 2023. Furthermore, contracts with European manufacturers are minimal, and lead times are short. Market participants assert that long and flat-product Steel manufacturers are keen on selling and that costs will substantially drop this month. As a ripple effect, Steel Rebar prices will remain muted in the upcoming month.