Dark Clouds Continue to Bother Global Ammonia Market, Prices Extend Fall Entering March 2023

Prices for Ammonia fertilizer have been on a declining trend recently. The price of nitrogen fertilizer has probably decreased as a result of falling natural gas costs. Natural gas prices have decreased recently, as in January 2023, Henry Hub's natural gas prices were $3.20 per million BTUs. According to the EIA's Short-Term Energy Outlook, a very mild heating season resulted in less natural gas being used for heating, which put downward pressure on natural gas prices. Prices for feedstock nitrogen have probably fallen despite being high due to decreases in crop prices. Consequently, impacting Ammonia and its other derivatives market.

In addition, it seems the fertilizers market, like Ammonia, has calmed down recently. The Ukraine-Russia conflict and supply problems brought on by Covid are largely to blame for the volatility of Ammonia prices. A significant portion of the natural gas used in Eastern Europe and Germany comes from Russia. Since the start of the Ukraine-Russia conflict, the Russian supply has considerably decreased. The output of nitrogen fertilizer in Europe may be severely curtailed, and Ammonia producers might not have enough gas as a raw material. Natural gas reductions are being handled better than anticipated by Germany and Europe. Germans, in particular, have expanded imports of Liquified Natural Gas (LNG) at quicker rates than anticipated while reducing their natural gas consumption.

In the Chinese market, the peak season for Ammonia prices this year did not witness a long-lasting increase. In addition to the relatively plentiful supply, a significant factor in the easing of price swings for Ammonia compared to prior years is the dispersion of demand purchases. The Spring Festival was held very early this year, and the weather remained chilly following the event. As a result, the preparation time for fertilizer for the Spring Festival is extended, and the Demand for Ammonia is somewhat sporadic. Since traders have more time to prepare fertilizer, they typically decide to buy it while prices are low.

According to ChemAnalyst, the overall confrontation between Ukraine and Russia appears to have been included in the market forecast. According to current projections, Anhydrous Ammonia prices will be around $1,000 per ton until the spring, which is consistent with past trends regarding corn and natural gas prices.