As the month of September 2025 ended, coal prices fell across much of the globe, in major markets such as the U.S., China, Australia, and South Africa, as rising demand for electricity added some backfill to inventories. In the U.S., weak demand at utilities meant that government-supported leasing plans could not offset the consumption recovery, which remained subdued. In China, most buyers were limited to out-of-guarantee stocks, especially as relatively low mine production restrictions had left all interest to restock diminished despite freight costs remaining very high. Export prices in Australia continued to ease as buyers in Asia reduced their imports, as demand seasonally subsided. In South Africa, coal prices eased further, prices were aided by large volume stockpiles being consumed by utilities, while the resulting demand eased export to Asia. All things considered, the market remains slightly bearish as supply constraints, continued energy transition, and demand destruction are factors in the complex tradeoffs. That said, analysts regard some degree of winter restocking is needed to support seasonal disadvantages; however, firm middle of year (or perhaps negated if at all forecasts allow) prices will be lower throughout most if not all of the year-end season, as economies focus on lower, cleaner costs of power.
