Challenges and Fears Loom as PFY Industry Faces Uncertainties and Inventory Pressures

The promising outlook for Polyester Filament Yarn (PFY) in the new year has taken an unexpected turn as significant production cutbacks and delays in startup times have been announced by major factories. Some facilities are even considering future maintenance plans, disrupting the anticipated prosperity in the PFY business landscape. The polyester polymerization rate in February is experiencing a notable decline, falling below the levels observed in the previous year and the 2021-2022 period.

This increase in production reduction and maintenance is not solely attributed to raw material market dynamics but is largely a response to operational challenges faced by companies. Despite initial restocking by downstream buyers in late January leading to a decline in PFY plant inventory, subsequent sales ratios dropping significantly have resulted in a rapid rebound in inventories. Companies are now grappling with the challenge of managing PFY inventory effectively, trying to strike a balance between restocking, sales, and the physical possession of goods.

As of early February, PFY inventory was estimated to last not more than two weeks. Looking ahead to the ninth day after the Chinese New Year, more than half a month remains, and if the daily sales ratio persists low for PFY, there is a risk of significant inventory accumulation. This becomes critical as the sales ratio may drop even lower during the holiday period unless additional promotional activities are initiated.

Adding to the complexity, current price levels for various materials, including polyester, cotton, and viscose, are generally higher than average prices observed last year. This price uncertainty poses challenges for market participants who remain unsure about potential post-holiday demand. The heightened prices of PFY could influence consumer purchasing behavior, contributing to market unpredictability.

As per the analysis, despite these uncertainties, there is a possibility of normal demand for PFY release after the holiday period, with some market participants anticipating a round of restocking at the end of February 2024. This is particularly relevant as some companies may not be fully stocked. However, the scenario underscores potential challenges in effectively managing and reducing inventory in the coming weeks. The anticipated expansion of PFY production reduction could further compress inventory accumulation, and the latter half of the month might witness minimal purchasing activity during downstream delivery, intensifying pressure on inventory due to insufficient downstream sales to offset the accumulated stock. As the industry navigates these challenges, careful inventory and risk management strategies become paramount for sustained stability.