Calcium Nitrate Prices in Europe Eases in May 2024, Set to Accelerate in June

In May 2024, Calcium Nitrate prices eased partly due to lower demand caused by floods and partly due to a decline in ammonia and nitrogenous components in the upstream markets. However, demand for Calcium Nitrate in 2024 is anticipated to surpass 2023 levels due to successful negotiations between farmers and the governments of Belgium, the Netherlands, and Germany. Both the EU and national governments have committed to helping farmers procure fertilizers at affordable rates. High-cost inventory levels of Calcium Nitrate have decreased since May 2023, contributing to ongoing price deflation in the medium term. Prices for June and July deliveries are expected to rise as demand increases and the nitrogenous upstream market recovers due to high gas costs in May.

ChemAnalyst reported that Calcium Nitrate prices in Europe for May 2024 were around USD 497-502/MT CFR Carlos. Deliveries from Belgium, primary transshipments from Norway to Antwerp, saw prices drop by 2% month-on-month due to heavy rains in Belgium, Germany, and the Netherlands, leading to excess inventories being sent to Spain, where demand is projected to be higher. Other factors for the price decline include the continued weakening of nitrogenous fertilizers and nitrate production, as ammonia and nitric acid prices have remained low in Europe for the past eight months. Although ammonia prices have begun to recover in some EU markets, they have not offset the overall supply situation dominated by China and India. Belgium experienced significant dips in Calcium Nitrate imports from Norway, with price quotations ranging from USD 527/MT to USD 374/MT throughout the month. Shipments were small, about 25 to 30 tons for May deliveries. One market participant noted that Calcium Nitrate’s production is not expected to increase this year, but sales are projected to rise, as reflected in Spain’s export prices, with FOB Spain prices for Calcium Nitrate mixed fertilizer deliveries averaging EUR 74 per 100 kg for YTD in 2024, higher than in 2023. Absolute exports have reduced by 50%, providing price support through supply tightening, while imports from Norway declined by 10% YTD.

Calcium Nitrate prices for June are expected to accelerate due to European markets maintaining export controls and supply tightening through reduced imports. The European Spring survey on Calcium Nitrate and fertilizers indicated significantly lower import volumes for June on a YoY basis, with prices largely rolled over from May. Both Belgium and Spain surveys show that suppliers intend to maintain tight supply control this week. EU parliamentary elections are expected to influence future EU strategies on fertilizers. As the EU elections occur in the first week of June, port operations, new orders, and trade activities are expected to slow down. For July deliveries, the forecast is moderately bullish due to higher prices rolling over from June, although demand sentiment from the EU spring survey remains bearish. Overall, Calcium Nitrate prices are expected to be slightly higher on a month-on-month basis in July.