Benzene Prices Falling Continuously for Past Six Months in USA, where is the bottom?

Benzene prices have been falling since the past six months in USA. The prices started to fall after having experienced a sudden rise in April at USD 1641 per tonne from USD 1170 per tonne in March due to deep freeze in February which constrained the supply of Benzene in USA. 

The prices have been falling since April, with the prices at USD 1391 per tonne in June, USD 1215 per tonne in July, USD 1040 per tonne in August, and USD 995 per tonne in September first week. The prices have returned to more or less similar levels of February. Now the question is whether this continuous decline in the price levels for Benzene will continue the for the next month and if it continues, what would be the expected fall in the prices in the USA. 

On the supply side, USA market seems to be amply supplied by Benzene and after the Saudi cuts in the crude oil, with the crude falling USD 1, and US government deciding to release oil from its strategic reserves, the crude oil supply in USA also seems to be sufficient. While on the demand side, the demand from the downstream Ethylbenzene, Cumene, Cyclohexane, Nitrobenzene remains firm on the back of reviving construction and automobile sectors in the USA. 

As per ChemAnalyst, “the falling prices of Benzene are an indication of an oversupplied market and price stabilization which has started from March levels with the prices settling at lower levels since the sudden jump port the deep freeze in February. Now that Ida has passed and the impact has been moderate on petrochemicals market, the prices are expected to stabilize around the September levels as the demand from the Asian markets is expected to rise with the rise in the Chinese consumption. The rise in the demand of Asian markets will support exports from the US hence the prices will tend to settle.”